The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 AI agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1AI is infrastructure, not only software
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. X-01

    Where will data-centre demand exceed grid and water capacity first, and what does that do to local prices and reliability?

    INI-XT01-GRD-01 · compute–grid–water; first output: cluster capacity register.

  2. X-02

    How exposed is AI capability to a disruption in advanced chips, tools or minerals?

    INI-XT01-CHP-02 · supply concentration; first output: single-point-of-failure map.

  3. X-03

    How much energy does inference use as AI agents spread, compared with training?

    INI-XT01-INF-03 · inference energy; first output: measured estimates by use.

  4. X-04

    Which failure modes of agentic systems appear in real incidents, and how are they caught?

    INI-XT01-SAF-04 · agentic incidents; first output: incident taxonomy and evidence grades.

  5. X-05

    Is AI augmenting or substituting work, by occupation and region, on measured rather than modelled evidence?

    INI-XT01-LAB-05 · measured labour effects; first output: evidence review.

  6. X-06

    How is the EU AI Act being applied, and what evidence of compliance capacity exists?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: implementation note.

  7. X-07

    How does AI change the cyber threat landscape for critical infrastructure?

    With GS-13 cyber; first output: scoping note.

  8. X-08

    Which AI capabilities in risk management have been tested in real operations?

    Technology capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 AI portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT01-GRD-01Compute–grid–water capacityInitiativeX-01PROPOSED
INI-XT01-CHP-02Chip and mineral supply concentrationInitiativeX-02PROPOSED
INI-XT01-INF-03Inference energy measurementInitiativeX-03PROPOSED
INI-XT01-SAF-04Agentic incident evidenceInitiativeX-04PROPOSED
INI-XT01-LAB-05Measured labour effectsInitiativeX-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT01-2027-01Chip–grid compound Universe missionMissionX-02Candidate

7.3The pathway

The AI edition reads national readiness chapters, the sector reports on energy, water and cyber, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; Canada, Global and Water are issued.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    AI and compute in each national edition

    CANADA ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · GS-01 water · GS-13 cyber

    GS-01 ISSUED · energy and cyber baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    compute, energy, chips, labour, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-13 strategic technology · SR-04 minerals · SR-10 DPI

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-01 report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT01-2027-01 · chip–grid compound disruption
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead, drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
ENE-001 · electricityGS-02 Energy editiongrid couplingPUBLIC
ENE-002 · US shareINI-XT01-GRD-01cluster capacityPUBLIC
CMP-003 · computepublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
MIN-005 · chips and mineralsINI-XT01-CHP-02 · SR-04supply concentrationPUBLIC
LAB-007 · labourINI-XT01-LAB-05measured effectsPUBLIC
SAF-009 · incidentsINI-XT01-SAF-04 · GS-13agentic incidentsPUBLIC
DEV-011 · accessGS-06 Development editionaccess couplingPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT01-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
AI Incident DatabaseResponsible AI CollaborativecontinuousSAF-009
AI Incidents and Hazards MonitorOECDcontinuousSAF-009
Electricity market reportsIEAmonthlyENE-001
Compute and model trendsEpoch AIcontinuousCMP-003
Export-control noticesnational authoritiesper noticeMIN-005
Grid interconnection queuessystem operatorsquarterlyRSK-XT01-ENE-002
Model and system cardsdevelopersper releasecapability register

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT01-001Clustered data-centre load lengthening grid queues15CORROBORATEDENE · INFinitiative X-01
SIG-XT01-002Tightening export controls on chips, tools and minerals1929CORROBORATEDMIN · TRDinitiative X-02
SIG-XT01-003Incidents involving autonomous agentsPARTIALAIC · DAT · FINinitiative X-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
  2. 19Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.back
  3. 29U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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