- AI and Agentic Systems 2026
- Chapter 5
Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1AI is infrastructure, not only software
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- a disruption to leading-edge chip supply from a single region, while large data-centre clusters face grid limits
- Analogues
- 2021 chip shortage; 2023 mineral export controls
- Interventions
- none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
MIN → AIC
leading-edge chip output falls sharply
2021 shortage
- 2
AIC → FIN
compute prices rise; investment plans stall
2021
- 3
AIC → INF
existing clusters run hotter and longer
peak events
- 4
ENE → AIC
grid limits cap new capacity at clusters
queues15
- 5
AIC → services
AI-dependent services degrade or ration
cloud outages
- 6
TRD → all
export controls and stockpiling amplify the shock
202319
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01 would travel through Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Minerals to ai compute | Leading-edge chip output falls sharply. Analogue or source: 2021 shortage. | Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 1 |
| 02 AI compute to finance | Compute prices rise; investment plans stall. Analogue or source: 2021. | Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 2 |
| 03 AI compute to infrastructure | Existing clusters run hotter and longer. Analogue or source: peak events. | Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 3 |
| 04 Energy to ai compute | Grid limits cap new capacity at clusters. Analogue or source: queues [15]. | Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 4 |
| 05 AI compute to services | AI-dependent services degrade or ration. Analogue or source: cloud outages. | Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 5 |
| 06 Trade to all | Export controls and stockpiling amplify the shock. Analogue or source: 2023 [19]. | Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: AI and Agentic Systems 2026, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01 (2026); AI and Agentic Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 15A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
- 19Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.back