Systems and sectors at baseline

4 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1AI is infrastructure, not only software
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

ENE · Energy

Data-centre electricity use

415TWh

about 1.5% of world electricity; about 945 TWh projected by 2030.

Reported2024IEA1

NAT · National grid

Data centres’ share of US electricity

4.4%

projected at 6.7–12% by 2028 in the national laboratory’s scenarios.

Reported2023LBNL15

CMP · Compute

Growth in frontier training compute

4–5×a year

sustained since about 2010.

Reported2010–2024Epoch AI14

ADO · Adoption

Organisations using AI

78%

up from 55% in 2023; corporate AI investment reached US$252 billion.

Reported2024AI Index2

CHP · Chips

Leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan

92%

a single-region concentration in the AI supply chain.

Reported2019SIA–BCG17

SYS · Incidents

Reported AI incidents

233in 2024

a record, up 56% on 2023.

Reported2024AI Index2

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through AI, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency through which AI carries risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling water demand rising at data-centre clusters; global volumes not consolidated.AIC → WATExpert input EQL 2
ENEAbout 415 TWh in 2024, projected to about 945 TWh by 2030.AIC → ENEReported EQL 4
FOOAI in agriculture is early; supply-chain optimisation spreading.AIC → FOOExpert input EQL 2
HLTClinical and research uses grow; safety and bias concerns documented.AIC → HLTInferred EQL 2
BIOMonitoring uses grow; physical footprint adds land and water pressure.AIC ↔ BIOExpert input EQL 2
CLIAI aids forecasting; data-centre emissions depend on the power mix.AIC ↔ CLIInferred EQL 3
INFData centres become critical infrastructure; grid connection queues lengthen.AIC → INFReported EQL 3
FINCorporate AI investment about US$252 billion in 2024; valuations concentrated.AIC → FINReported EQL 3
DATCloud and model concentration create common points of failure.DAT ↔ AICInferred EQL 3
AICCompute scaling four to five times a year; costs falling fast.the core systemReported EQL 3
MINChips and their minerals concentrated in a few countries.MIN → AICReported EQL 3
TRDExport controls on chips, tools and minerals since 2022.TRD → AICReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their exposure to AI, on the same grammar as every edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemAI couples energy, water, minerals and labour36concentrated common dependenciesPARTIAL
GS-01Watercooling demand at clusters37local water competitionTHIN
GS-02Energyabout 1.5% of electricity1grid strain at clustersGOOD
GS-03Foodearly adoptionsupply-chain dependence on AI toolsTHIN
GS-04Healthclinical and research usessafety, bias, privacyPARTIAL
GS-05Financeinvestment about US$252 billion2valuation concentrationPARTIAL
GS-06Development2.6 billion offline34unequal access to benefitsGOOD
GS-07Climateemissions depend on power mix1demand growth against clean supplyPARTIAL
GS-08DisasterAI in forecasting and responseover-reliance; failures under stressTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuredata centres as critical assetsconnection queues; single points of failurePARTIAL
GS-10Citiesclusters in a few metro regionslocal grid and water pressurePARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversitymonitoring usesland and water footprintTHIN
GS-12Earth observationAI-assisted analysis growingmodel and data provenancePARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitalAI changes attack and defence21automated attacks on infrastructurePARTIAL
GS-14Policybinding AI law has begun410implementation capacityGOOD
GS-15ScienceAI accelerates researchreproducibility and dual usePARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  2. 15A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
  3. 14J. Sevilla and E. Roldán, “Training compute of frontier AI models grows by 4–5x per year.” Epoch AI, 2024.back
  4. 2Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.back
  5. 17Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.back
  6. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.back
  7. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.back
  8. 34ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.back
  9. 21World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025. WEF, Cologny/Geneva, January 2025.back
  10. 4European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.back
  11. 10Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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