Key findings

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses in Canada over 43 years; in 2025, C$1.0 billion of C$3.4 billion in societal losses was uninsured.

Implication

Where cover is thin, overland flood in high-risk areas, wildfire at the urban edge, and much public infrastructure, losses move onto household balance sheets and into public budgets through disaster assistance. A rising loss trend with a steady uninsured share means a rising absolute burden on both³²².

What would move it

Provincial loss splits (agenda item A-03), the design of a national flood insurance arrangement, and the 2026 and 2027 loss years would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   National GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023.¹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   Canada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still.⁵

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010

   The 2023 wildfire season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared.¹⁰²

2.3Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

   Insured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared.²

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

   Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation.³

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Oil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e).¹

2. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   Electricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports.¹⁹

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Canada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture.⁸

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   The 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling.⁶

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   Protected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030.⁷¹³

2.8Trade

1. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011

   About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027.¹²

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, wildfire smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
2. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
3. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
4. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
5. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
6. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
7. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
8. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
10. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
11. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
12. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025.back