The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Institutional Funds Nexus are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Institutional Funds Nexus sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the capital markets and investment field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as OECD Core Principles of Private Pension Regulation. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
How physical and transition risk could reach a loan book under different scenarios. Illustrative design values.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
| Horizon | Scenario source | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Five years | NGFS short-term scenarios (May 2025) | Strategic asset allocation reviews and funding plans |
| To 2050 | NGFS long-term scenarios, Phase V; Phase VI announced for 2026 | Long-horizon beliefs and engagement |
| Event-defined | Reverse stress tests | What would break the funding path |
NGFS stated in December 2025 that the paper behind the Phase V physical damage function was retracted, and that users should account for this. Fund scenarios therefore show physical-risk results with a wider uncertainty statement until a revised vintage is published. Climate projections at GCRI climate projections; intergenerational questions at GRF future generations.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.