GRA · Actuarial and Quantitative Risk
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Regional subject applications
Regional quantitative work examines how perils correlate across borders and how pooled covers spread risk.
01Workspace
The workspace for regional subject applications.
GRA · Actuarial and Quantitative Risk · Programme boardIllustrative
Programme board
Reserving team · Regional subject applications · Cycle 2 of 4 · Example interface, not a record
- Workstreams active6Active
- Milestones due this quarter4Watch
- Decisions pending with owners3Watch
- Open risks12
Quarter review dueGRA · Actuarial and Quantitative Risk
Workstreams
by stage
Scoping02
Experience analysisWS-551 · owner: Chief financial officer
Mortality basis reviewWS-497 · owner: Appointed actuary
In delivery02
Quarterly reservingMilestone M3 · slipping
Pricing model updateMilestone M4 · on plan
Review01
Capital model validationIndependent reviewer named
Closed01
Reserve range studyClosure note on record
Gates
- Requestowner named
- Scoping noteboundary
- Qualifiedinputs
- BuildFoundry
- Testcontrolled
- Publishwith limits
- Decisionauthority
Actuarial and Quantitative Risk · Programme board. Programme board: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
02Scope
Regional applications in Actuarial and Quantitative Risk.
- 01
Loss distributions
Frequency, severity and aggregate loss, and how tails are estimated.
- 02
Extreme value methods
Tail estimation for hazards, markets and operational losses.
- 03
Climate-adjusted pricing questions
How non-stationary hazard changes pricing assumptions.
- 04
Credibility and sparse data
Working where loss history is short or missing.
- 05
Dependence and correlation
Copulas, contagion and why correlations break in stress.
- 06
Capital and solvency models
Internal models, standard formulas and their assumptions.
03Geography
Hazards and exposure in Japan and Korea.
Population density, flood water and active fires over Japan and Korea, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on Japan and Korea.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASESources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Context: CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): Global Human Built-up And Settlement Extent (HBASE) 2010; Seto, Guneralp and Hutyra 2012, Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030; Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (12 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
04Regional
Questions.
- How correlated are cyclone losses across island states in a pool?
- How does drought correlate across neighbouring countries?
- How do regional pools set attachment points?
Regional Actuarial and Quantitative Risk entries would compare how IAA, EIOPA and IAIS standards are applied, and which scenarios, such as dependence under stress, matter most in each region.
05Process
How the process runs.
Process
Regional subject applications: Programme through eight gates
The Global Risks Forum (GRF) records eight yearly gates, each a programme decision; a gate not passed stops its work, and the competent authority decides outside.
01 Q1 · Planning
- 01G0 · Annual programme authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises the annual mandate. It never sets a national agenda.
- 03Route the candidate mission to standardsStep · Nexus StandardsNexus Standards routes each candidate mission to the standards and profiles that apply.
02 Q2 · Readiness and build
- 04G1 · Missions admittedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF admits missions with reasons recorded. It cannot admit a mission without an accountable owner.
- 05G2 · Data and resources qualifiedGate · The Global Risks ForumReadiness preparation closes when data, people and resources are qualified.
- 06G3 · Build accepted for exerciseGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF records whether the build is accepted for exercise. A gate not passed stops the work it governs.
03 Q3 · Action Week
- 07G4 · Controlled live operation authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises controlled live operation for Action Week.
- 08G5 · Evidence sealed and stand-down recordedGate · The Global Risks ForumThe evidence is sealed with its provenance and the stand-down is recorded.
04 Q4 · Reporting and renewal
- 02Competent authority decides and actsActor · The competent authorityThe competent authority decides and acts under its own rules. The programme informs it and never decides for it.
- 09Scientific and editorial reviewStep · Reviewers and the publisherQualified, conflict-managed reviewers and the publisher decide what is accepted. Institutions cannot decide a scientific conclusion.
- 10G6 · Publication authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises publication of results that have passed scientific and editorial review. It cannot publish personal data.
- 11G7 · Renewal reviewedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF reviews renewal and sets the next cycle’s mandate.
The programme year · The Global Risks Forum · Decision rightsDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation.
06Status
Work is shown as its record stands.
Programmes are listed as exploring, forming, constituted, active, paused or archived. Country and regional entries appear when a programme record supports them.
07Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
08Questions
Questions and answers.
How do I propose work at this level?
Write to the contact form or a regional desk. A proposal receives a reference.
Actuarial and Quantitative Risk
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.