GRA · Actuarial and Quantitative Risk
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Global subject programme
Global quantitative questions concern standards of practice and capital frameworks that set the tail measures used everywhere.
01Workspace
The workspace for global subject programme.
GRA · Actuarial and Quantitative Risk · Programme boardIllustrative
Programme board
Reserving team · Global subject programme · Cycle 4 of 4 · Example interface, not a record
- Workstreams active5Active
- Milestones due this quarter4Watch
- Decisions pending with owners3Watch
- Open risks4
Quarter review dueGRA · Actuarial and Quantitative Risk
Workstreams
by stage
Scoping02
Mortality basis reviewWS-634 · owner: Reserving committee
Reserve range studyWS-772 · owner: Reserving committee
In delivery02
Capital model validationMilestone M5 · slipping
Quarterly reservingMilestone M3 · on plan
Review01
Pricing model updateIndependent reviewer named
Closed01
Experience analysisClosure note on record
Gates
- Requestowner named
- Scoping noteboundary
- Qualifiedinputs
- BuildFoundry
- Testcontrolled
- Publishwith limits
- Decisionauthority
Actuarial and Quantitative Risk · Programme board. Programme board: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
02Scope
Global subject programme in Actuarial and Quantitative Risk.
- 01
Loss distributions
Frequency, severity and aggregate loss, and how tails are estimated.
- 02
Extreme value methods
Tail estimation for hazards, markets and operational losses.
- 03
Climate-adjusted pricing questions
How non-stationary hazard changes pricing assumptions.
- 04
Credibility and sparse data
Working where loss history is short or missing.
- 05
Dependence and correlation
Copulas, contagion and why correlations break in stress.
- 06
Capital and solvency models
Internal models, standard formulas and their assumptions.
03Geography
Hazards and exposure in Japan and Korea.
Population density, flood water and active fires over Japan and Korea, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on Japan and Korea.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASESources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Context: CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): Global Human Built-up And Settlement Extent (HBASE) 2010; Seto, Guneralp and Hutyra 2012, Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030; Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (12 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
04Questions
References.
| Question | Reference |
|---|---|
| Which standards govern actuarial work? | IAA ISAPs and national standards |
| Which tail measure sets capital? | Solvency II 1-in-200 value at risk; ICS |
| How are models governed? | Model risk guidance such as SR 26-2 |
These Actuarial and Quantitative Risk questions are framed for actuaries, quantitative analysts and catastrophe modellers, with scenario designs such as dependence under stress.
05Process
How the process runs.
Process
Global subject programme: Policy question to decision
A priority becomes a question, evidence, a decision case and a limited publication; the competent authority decides, never the programme.
01 Question
- 01A priority becomes a questionStep · Universe; national counterpartsA priority becomes a researchable question with stated criteria. National counterparts own the agenda, data and decisions.
- 03Scientific and stakeholder challengeStep · the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI); the Global Risks Forum (GRF)Scientific and affected-stakeholder challenge informs mission selection and methods.
02 Evidence and options
- 04Assemble the evidenceStep · GCRIMethods, labelled data and uncertainty are assembled. Every finding carries one of nine evidence labels.
- 06Decision case with optionsRecord · The decision owner named in the caseA decision case binds owner, alternatives, evidence and deadline. It needs sensitivity and robustness.
03 Review and publication
- 07G6 · Publication authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises publication of results that have passed scientific and editorial review. It cannot publish personal data.
- 08Publish with method, uncertainty and limitsRecord · ReportsFindings are published with their method, uncertainty and limits. An edition is published after review, not to a calendar.
04 Outside the programme
- 02Competent authority decidesDecision · The competent authorityThe authority or institution decides under its own rules. The authority decides; the programme informs.
- 05Action and implementation stay with the ownersActor · The relevant government, operator or licensed institutionDecisions and execution stay with the relevant government, operator or licensed institution. The programme records one only if shared.
05 Learning
- 09Corrections and lessons feed the next agendaStep · UniverseCorrections and lessons feed the next annual agenda. The findings of one year set the mandate of the next.
The Nexus cycle · Decision rights · The programme yearDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation.
06Status
Work is shown as its record stands.
Programmes are listed as exploring, forming, constituted, active, paused or archived. Country and regional entries appear when a programme record supports them.
07Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- International Actuarial Association: International Standards of Actuarial Practice (ISAP)
- Solvency II Directive 2009/138/EC as amended by the 2025 review (apply from 30 January 2027)
- IAIS Insurance Core Principles and ComFrame, including the Insurance Capital Standard (adopted December 2024)
- US interagency revised guidance on model risk management, SR 26-2 (April 2026), superseding SR 11-7
08Questions and answers
Questions and answers.
How do I propose work at this level?
Write to the contact form or a regional desk. A proposal receives a reference.
Actuarial and Quantitative Risk
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.