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Methods and uncertainty

Analysis and uncertainty

The methods Sovereign Capital Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.

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Publisher
The Global Risks Alliance
Field
Sovereign and public finance, Capital markets and investment
Status
Established
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Evidence register

Sovereign capital · Analysis and uncertainty

Register currentGRA · Sovereign Capital Nexus

Indicators

unit · cadence · label

Assets under managementlocal bnquarterlyREPORTEDSP-0567
Liquidity tranche covermonths of importsmonthlyMODELLEDSP-7174
Drawdown in severe scenario of fundannualMODELLEDSP-3969
Domestic investment share of fundannualREPORTEDSP-0459

Source passport

Source
Holdings
Licence
open · attribution
Steward
Fund board
Coverage
79 pct of places
Known limits
sparse in uplands

Coverage by place

Sovereign Capital Nexus · Evidence registerEvidence register, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

The Sovereign Capital Nexus methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them financial economics and macro-finance, economics and development economics, and decision analysis under uncertainty, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.

02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Analysis and uncertainty: from a source to a labelled evidence recordA source is registered with its licence and steward, checked for quality and coverage, labelled by evidence class, versioned and published with a passport; corrections create a new version. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Activity and exposure in the Gulf.

Night-time lights and population, a proxy for economic activity, with the floods and fires that put assets at risk, framed on the Gulf; each layer is a dated NASA product.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Activity and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Night-time lights and population, a proxy for economic activity, with the floods and fires that put assets at risk, framed on the Gulf.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Natural EarthSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026

04Methods

The methods in use.

  1. Financial economics and macro-financeSovereign asset and liability analysis · Sovereign, bank and enterprise feedbackApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. Economics and development economicsPermanent income and fiscal sustainability · Dutch disease and absorptive capacityApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. Decision analysis under uncertaintyDisaster risk layering choices · Robust fiscal and fund rules · Mandate trade-offs for boardsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
05Methods

How sovereign capital risk is studied.

MethodUseLimit
Debt sustainability analysisDebt paths under baseline and stressSensitive to growth and interest assumptions
Fan chartsDistribution of debt outcomesHistorical volatility may understate new shocks
Sovereign asset-liability managementMatching fund assets to the state's liabilitiesData on contingent liabilities is incomplete
Natural-capital accounting (SEEA)Value of resource and ecosystem assetsValuation methods differ
07Uncertainty

How uncertainty is reported.

  1. 01

    State assumptions

    Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.

  2. 02

    Quantify where possible

    Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.

  3. 03

    Validate and compare

    Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.

  4. 04

    Publish limits

    What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.

08Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Uncertainty quantificationCharacterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.
Sensitivity analysisRepeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them.
Model validationIndependent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use.
Financial economics and macro-financeFinancial economics and macro-finance study how asset prices, credit and financial institutions interact with the real economy.
09Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Are the methods open?
Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.
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