A-P02 · PROCESS · scenariosGRA dossier · service level R0
GRAReinsurance and CatastropheIn development
Sector scenarios

Published scenarios

Sector-level scenarios for Reinsurance and Catastrophe are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Publisher
The Global Risks Alliance
Field
Insurance and catastrophe, Climate and hazards, Disaster and crisis
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Pipeline

Published scenarios · Workspace WS-93

One stage waitingGRA · Reinsurance and Catastrophe

Stages

  1. Ingest3 sources
  2. Validateschema · licence
  3. Transformversioned
  4. ModelExtreme value…
  5. Testheld-out
  6. Releasewith limits

Artefacts

Exposure bordereauv2.2To checkREPORTED
Vendor or open cat model outputv2.6OpenMODELLED
Event footprintsv6.4OpenMODELLED
Claims datav2.1To checkOBSERVED

Compute quota

share used vs alert level

CPU hours49 used · limit 80Storage54 used · limit 90GPU hours42 used · limit 70

Reinsurance and Catastrophe · PipelinePipeline, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Reinsurance and Catastrophe sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the insurance and catastrophe field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Insurance Core Principles, ComFrame and the Insurance Capital Standard. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Published scenarios: risk as hazard, exposure and vulnerabilityRisk arises from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); responses act on each driver and leave a residual risk that is monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Spatial finance

Exposure, hazard and the exceedance curve.

Which places drive loss in a severe year, and how far it reaches into reinsurance. Illustrative design values.

Coastal exposure under cyclone and earthquake zones, beside the loss curve it produces.Illustrative design values, not a model output or a price.
04Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

05Scenario set

Catastrophe scenarios beyond the EP curve.

ScenarioPurpose
Historical event replay at today's exposureWhat a past storm or earthquake would cost now
Clash scenariosOne event hitting property, marine, energy and casualty lines together
Back-to-back eventsTwo events in one season exhausting reinsurance reinstatements
Climate-conditioned event setsFrequency and intensity under warmer conditions
06Spatial finance

Exposure, hazard and the exceedance curve.

The figure shows which places drive loss in a severe year and how far the loss reaches into reinsurance layers. Values are illustrative design values. Storm-track replay uses IBTrACS; hazard science at GCRI flood and storm.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
ScenarioA plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction.
Severe but plausible scenarioA disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur.
Reverse stress testStarting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it.
Investment adviceA personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I request a map or model?
Write to contact@globalriskalliance.com with what you need and why.
Reinsurance and Catastrophe

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

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