Payments and Market Infrastructure
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
The methods Payments and Market Infrastructure relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
GRA · In development · service level R0
The Payments and Market Infrastructure methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them payment and financial market technology, network science and contagion, and reliability and resilience engineering, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For analysis and uncertainty, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on night lights and population density with night lights tonight from NASA GIBS, framed on the United Kingdom and Ireland; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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For analysis and uncertainty, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on night lights and population density with night lights tonight from NASA GIBS, framed on the United Kingdom and Ireland; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Method | Use |
|---|---|
| Payment system simulation | Replays transaction data with a participant removed to measure liquidity shortfall |
| Network centrality | Identifies participants whose failure affects most flows |
| Intraday liquidity analysis | Timing of payments and liquidity recycling |
| Operational incident analysis | Frequency and duration of outages from public reports |
Simulation on real transaction data is carried out by operators and central banks. Public research uses aggregate statistics and synthetic networks, and says so. Topic depth at operational test methods.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Independent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use. |
| Payment and financial market technology | Payment and financial market technology covers the systems that clear and settle transactions and support trading. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.