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offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">XT-01<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Exponential Technology<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. AI is infrastructure, not only software<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Chip supply disruption under grid constraint<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Lenses and readings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Artificial intelligence enters 2027 as physical infrastructure. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects roughly 945 TWh by 2030, driven by accelerated servers for AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The training compute of frontier models has grown by four to five times a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>, while the cost of using a model at a fixed level of performance fell more than 280-fold in two years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Adoption has spread fast: 78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Supply is concentrated: in 2019 about 92% of the world\u2019s most advanced logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>, and the refining of key minerals is concentrated in a few countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. Reported AI incidents rose by more than half in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, and governance is moving from principles to law, led by the phased application of the EU AI Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for AI as a system of compute, energy, water, chips, labour and institutions, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will answer. It ranks no model, company or country.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the AI baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, rising to about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How much power does AI use?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Frontier training compute has grown four- to five-fold a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How fast is capability scaling?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The cost of GPT-3.5-level performance fell more than 280-fold in two years.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is AI getting cheaper?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 92% of leading-edge chip capacity sat in one region in 2019.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How concentrated is supply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">78% of organisations used AI in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How widely is AI used?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A quarter to two-fifths of jobs are exposed; exposure is not job loss.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What does it mean for work?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Reported incidents reached a record 233 in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are harms rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A chip supply disruption coinciding with grid limits at data-centre clusters. SCN-XT01-CHG-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030, driven mainly by accelerated servers for AI.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-fig1-t\">Data-centre electricity use (TWh)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2024 \u00b7 observed estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"43.9\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">415<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2030 \u00b7 IEA base case<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">945<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: IEA, Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Because demand is clustered, the first effects fall on particular grids, water basins and communities: connection queues, local price pressure and competition for clean power. The global share stays small while local shares become large<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">415<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>data-centre electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">78<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>organisations using AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">252<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>corporate AI investment, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">92<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>leading-edge chips in one region<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">233<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">incidents<\/span><p>reported in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people offline, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading AI as physical infrastructure with fast-rising, clustered demand for power and water, and a highly concentrated supply chain.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people AI arrives as a tool at work, a change in a job or a new data centre nearby.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Investment is large and concentrated, supply risk sits in a few regions, and liability and insurance for AI are nascent.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>AI is scaling faster than the infrastructure and institutions around it.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the state of AI compute, energy, water, chips, adoption, labour, incidents and governance in 2026, and the couplings through which AI carries risk into power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, supply chains, work and institutions. It treats AI as infrastructure, not only software.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a capability ranking of models or companies, a forecast of artificial general intelligence, a safety certification or a policy recommendation. Benchmarks are cited with their dates and methods.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National readiness chapters and federation evidence feed the 2027 edition. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new measurements, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cs-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">AI is infrastructure, not only software<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no model, company or country and certifies no system.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where does AI demand meet physical limits first, power, water or chips?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry AI-driven shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which AI capabilities and safeguards have been tested?<\/li><li>What must the federation measure first in 2027?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five infrastructure chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>AI is usually described by what models can do. This baseline describes what AI needs: electricity, water, chips, minerals, networks, skilled people and institutions. Read that way, AI is one of the fastest-growing loads on the world\u2019s physical <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, and one of the most concentrated supply chains in the global economy.<\/p><p>Demand is rising fast. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030 in its base case<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. In the United States, data centres used about 4.4% of electricity in 2023, with 6.7\u201312% projected for 2028<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Demand is clustered in a few regions, so its effects on grids and water are local before they are global.<\/p><p>Capability is scaling at a pace few infrastructures have seen. Frontier training compute has grown by four to five times a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>, while the cost of reaching a fixed level of performance has collapsed: GPT-3.5-level use became more than 280 times cheaper between late 2022 and late 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Cheaper use spreads adoption, 78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, and spreads the energy demand with it.<\/p><p>Supply is concentrated. In 2019 about 92% of leading-edge logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>. The refining of minerals used in chips and batteries is concentrated in a few countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>, and export controls on chips, tools and minerals have tightened since 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>. A single regional disruption could constrain AI capacity worldwide.<\/p><p>Harms are rising with use. Reported AI incidents reached a record 233 in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, and the International AI Safety Report documents risks from malicious use, malfunction and systemic effects on labour and information<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. Agentic systems that act on their own add new failure modes, while incident data on them remain thin.<\/p><p>Governance is moving from principles to law. The EU AI Act applies in phases from 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>; the Council of Europe opened a binding convention in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>; and in 2025 the UN General Assembly created an independent scientific panel and a global dialogue on AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. About 2.6 billion people remain offline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup>, so access is itself a governance question.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads AI as part of the coupled system. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does an AI-driven shock travel next, and who holds the capability to contain it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-fig1-t\">How fast is AI being adopted, and at what scale? Selected indicators, 2024<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Adoption rose by 23 points in a year, faster than most general-purpose technologies. Exposure estimates for jobs vary by definition, so the labour question is how exposure turns into augmentation or substitution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Organisations using AI (%)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">78<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Same, 2023 (%)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"70.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">55<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Share of jobs exposed, IMF (%)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"51.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">40<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Share of jobs exposed, ILO (%)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"32.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">25<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">252<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>corporate AI investment, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">170<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>jobs expected to be created by 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">92<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>jobs expected to be displaced by 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people offline, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The technology-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for the demands and effects of AI. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence; they set the graph that measurement will test in 2027.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydro \u00b7 thermal cooling<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe water \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">air pollution \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use \u00b7 mining<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u224870% of withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biomass \u00b7 hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 medicines<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 ENE \u2192 cities<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Clustered data-centre load lengthens grid queues and raises local prices.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> United States clusters<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 AIC<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A mineral or chip export control constrains compute supply.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> gallium and germanium, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Cooling demand competes with local water use.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> water-stressed sites<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 DAT \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Concentrated cloud and model dependencies create common failures.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> large outages<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 labour<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Automation changes tasks faster than retraining.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> exposure estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/td><td>Food to water: \u224870% of withdrawals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>P. Li, J. Yang, M. A. Islam and S. Ren, \u201cMaking AI less \u2018thirsty\u2019: uncovering and addressing the secret water footprint of AI models,\u201d arXiv:2304.03271 (preprint), 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c1-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the AI baseline. They are grouped by coupling, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030, driven mainly by accelerated servers for AI.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-fig1-t\">Data-centre electricity use (TWh)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2024 \u00b7 observed estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"43.9\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">415<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2030 \u00b7 IEA base case<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">945<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: IEA, Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Because demand is clustered, the first effects fall on particular grids, water basins and communities: connection queues, local price pressure and competition for clean power. The global share stays small while local shares become large<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Grid connection queues at the largest clusters, efficiency gains in chips and cooling, and the pace of inference demand from AI agents would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total; the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7\u201312% projected for 2028.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Compute<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-003\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The training compute of frontier models has grown by four to five times a year since about 2010.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-004\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The cost of using a model at GPT-3.5 level fell more than 280-fold between November 2022 and October 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Minerals<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 92% of leading-edge logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan in 2019; key mineral refining is concentrated in a few countries.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Adoption<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ADO-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ADO-006\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ADO-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024, up from 55% in 2023; corporate AI investment reached about US$252 billion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Labour<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-007\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Between about a quarter and two-fifths of global employment is exposed to AI, depending on definition.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-008\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Employers expect 170 million jobs to be created and 92 million displaced by 2030, with technology a leading driver.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Safety<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-009\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Reported AI incidents reached a record 233 in 2024, up 56% on 2023.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Governance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Binding AI law has begun: the EU AI Act applies in phases from 2025, alongside a Council of Europe convention and UN governance bodies.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Development<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 2.6 billion people remained offline in 2024, limiting who can benefit from AI.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.10<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an advanced-chip supply disruption coinciding with grid constraints at major data-centre clusters. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c2-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Data-centre electricity use<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">415<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>about 1.5% of world electricity; about 945 TWh projected by 2030.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NAT \u00b7 National grid<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Data centres\u2019 share of US electricity<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">4.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>projected at 6.7\u201312% by 2028 in the national laboratory\u2019s scenarios.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>LBNL<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CMP \u00b7 Compute<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Growth in frontier training compute<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">4\u20135\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">a year<\/span><p>sustained since about 2010.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2010\u20132024<\/span><span>Epoch AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ADO \u00b7 Adoption<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Organisations using AI<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">78<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>up from 55% in 2023; corporate AI investment reached US$252 billion.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>AI Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CHP \u00b7 Chips<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">92<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>a single-region concentration in the AI supply chain.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2019<\/span><span>SIA\u2013BCG<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Incidents<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Reported AI incidents<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">233<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">in 2024<\/span><p>a record, up 56% on 2023.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>AI Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through AI, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency through which AI carries risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Cooling water demand rising at data-centre clusters; global volumes not consolidated.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>About 415 TWh in 2024, projected to about 945 TWh by 2030.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>AI in agriculture is early; supply-chain optimisation spreading.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Clinical and research uses grow; safety and bias concerns documented.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Monitoring uses grow; physical footprint adds land and water pressure.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2194 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>AI aids forecasting; data-centre emissions depend on the power mix.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2194 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Data centres become <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 critical-infrastructure\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Physical and digital assets, systems and networks whose disruption would seriously affect health, safety, security, economic welfare or the functioning of government. Criticality depends on what relies on them.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">critical infrastructure<\/a>; grid connection queues lengthen.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Corporate AI investment about US$252 billion in 2024; valuations concentrated.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Cloud and model concentration create common points of failure.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2194 AIC<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Compute scaling four to five times a year; costs falling fast.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Chips and their minerals concentrated in a few countries.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 AIC<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Export controls on chips, tools and minerals since 2022.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 AIC<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their exposure to AI, on the same grammar as every edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>AI couples energy, water, minerals and labour<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>concentrated common dependencies<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>cooling demand at clusters<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>local water competition<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>about 1.5% of electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>grid strain at clusters<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>early adoption<\/td><td>supply-chain dependence on AI tools<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>clinical and research uses<\/td><td>safety, bias, privacy<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>investment about US$252 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>valuation concentration<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>2.6 billion offline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>unequal access to benefits<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>emissions depend on power mix<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>demand growth against clean supply<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>AI in forecasting and response<\/td><td>over-reliance; failures under stress<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>data centres as critical assets<\/td><td>connection queues; single points of failure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>clusters in a few metro regions<\/td><td>local grid and water pressure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>monitoring uses<\/td><td>land and water footprint<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>AI-assisted analysis growing<\/td><td>model and data provenance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>AI changes attack and defence<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>automated attacks on infrastructure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>binding AI law has begun<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation capacity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>AI accelerates research<\/td><td>reproducibility and dual use<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four AI risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT01-MIN-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Advanced-chip supply disruption<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>conflict, disaster or export control in a concentrated supply region<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>all AI compute; wider electronics<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>about 92% of leading-edge capacity in one region (2019)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>new fabs; stockpiles; diversification<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 AIC \u2192 FIN, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT01-ENE-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Grid and water constraints at data-centre clusters<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>fast load growth in a few regions<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>local grids, water basins, communities<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>long connection queues; water stress<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>grid build-out; efficiency; siting rules<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT \u2192 cities<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20133 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT01-SAF-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Failures and misuse of agentic systems<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>autonomous agents acting in real <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>finance, cyber, critical services<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>thin incident data; limited oversight<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>evaluations, monitoring, risk frameworks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 DAT \u2192 FIN, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20133 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT01-LAB-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Labour displacement outpacing transition<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rapid adoption across tasks<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>a quarter to two-fifths of jobs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>weak retraining and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social protection<\/a><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>skills programmes; social protection<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 labour \u2192 FIN, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>3\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for AI at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>risk-management frameworks published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>incident databases and monitors<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no shared warning system for systemic AI failures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national AI strategies widespread<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>chip and compute redundancy limited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>incident response in firms; cross-border response untested<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>cloud continuity planning; large outages still occur<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>standard IT recovery practice<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>skills and education programmes expanding<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>little AI-specific transition support<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>AI liability and insurance markets nascent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>summits, UN panel and dialogue created<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>compute concentrated in few providers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>skills shortages widely reported<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>large research base; safety research small relative to capability<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), NIST AI 100-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile, NIST AI 600-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO\/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology, Artificial intelligence, Management system. ISO, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1\u20132 November 2023. London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Chip supply disruption under grid constraint<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a disruption to leading-edge chip supply from a single region, while large data-centre clusters face grid limits<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>2021 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.semiconductor-supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Loss of advanced or mature chip output, from fab damage, contamination, water or power loss, conflict or export controls, halting vehicles, devices and infrastructure equipment.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\">chip shortage<\/a>; 2023 mineral export controls<\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 AIC<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">leading-edge chip output falls sharply<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2021 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\">shortage<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">compute prices rise; investment plans stall<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2021<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">existing clusters run hotter and longer<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">peak events<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 AIC<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">grid limits cap new capacity at clusters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">queues<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 services<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">AI-dependent services degrade or ration<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">cloud outages<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 all<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">export controls and stockpiling amplify the shock<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01 would travel through Artificial Intelligence and Agentic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>&#8216;s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Minerals to ai compute<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Leading-edge chip output falls sharply. Analogue or source: 2021 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\">shortage<\/a>.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 AI compute to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Compute prices rise; investment plans stall. Analogue or source: 2021.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 AI compute to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Existing clusters run hotter and longer. Analogue or source: peak events.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Energy to ai compute<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Grid limits cap new capacity at clusters. Analogue or source: queues [15].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 AI compute to services<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">AI-dependent services degrade or ration. Analogue or source: cloud outages.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Trade to all<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Export controls and stockpiling amplify the shock. Analogue or source: 2023 [19].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01<\/a> (2026); AI and Agentic Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c5-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Lenses and readings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The AI baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>33 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Investment is large and concentrated, supply risk sits in a few regions, and liability and insurance for AI are nascent. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">ADO-006 \u00b7 MIN-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading AI as physical infrastructure with fast-rising, clustered demand for power and water, and a highly concentrated supply chain. Evidence is strongest for electricity use and adoption, and weakest for water, inference energy and agentic failures.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">ENE-001 \u00b7 MIN-005 \u00b7 SAF-009 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people AI arrives as a tool at work, a change in a job or a new data centre nearby. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the physical and social footprint of AI, power, water, work and access, alongside its benefits.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">LAB-007 \u00b7 DEV-011 \u00b7 ENE-002<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>AI is scaling faster than the infrastructure and institutions around it. The 2027 programme should measure the physical couplings, test the chip\u2013grid pathway, and build incident evidence for agentic systems before they become critical.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 X-01 \u00b7 X-04<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 AI readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 AI readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>AI risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 six proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>Canada, Global and Water issued<\/td><td>national readiness chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Every model runs in a building on a grid in a basin. Treating AI as weightless software hides where its demands land: on particular substations, cooling systems and communities. Reading AI by location is the first step to managing it as infrastructure.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>AI has an address<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Leading-edge chips are made in very few places, from minerals refined in very few places, and run in very few clouds. Each concentration is efficient; together they form a chain whose weakest link is a single region.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Concentration is the risk<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Systems that act on their own will fail in ways that chat interfaces do not. Before agents become critical to finance, health or infrastructure, the world needs incident evidence about them, not only principles.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Agents need evidence<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">About 2.6 billion people are offline. If AI\u2019s benefits reach only the connected, its risks will still reach everyone. Access, skills and language belong in every account of AI readiness.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Access is the first safeguard<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments that shape AI development and use, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED \u00b7 OPEN FOR SIGNATURE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689, AI Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>IN FORCE \u00b7 PHASED<\/td><td>risk-based obligations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Framework Convention on AI, CETS 225<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Council of Europe<\/td><td>open to all states<\/td><td>OPEN FOR SIGNATURE<\/td><td>human rights, rule of law<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>OECD AI Principles<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>OECD<\/td><td>adherents<\/td><td>ADOPTED \u00b7 UPDATED 2024<\/td><td>trustworthy AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNESCO Recommendation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNESCO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2021<\/td><td>ethics<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Digital Compact<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN General Assembly<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2024<\/td><td>digital cooperation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UN scientific panel and dialogue<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN General Assembly<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ESTABLISHED 2025<\/td><td>evidence and dialogue<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NIST AI RMF and GenAI profile<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NIST<\/td><td>voluntary<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>risk management<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO\/IEC 42001<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO \u00b7 IEC<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>PUBLISHED<\/td><td>management <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hiroshima Code of Conduct<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>G7<\/td><td>voluntary<\/td><td>PUBLISHED 2023<\/td><td>advanced AI developers<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>EU AI Act prohibitions and general-purpose model rules began to apply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The UN created an AI scientific panel and global dialogue<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Council of Europe convention opened for signature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Application of high-risk obligations under the AI Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>First outputs of the UN scientific panel<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Ratifications of the Council of Europe convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers water assessments, peer-reviewed hydrology and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about AI as infrastructure and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>energy and compute analyses; safety assessments; labour studies; governance instruments; peer-reviewed research and labelled preprints<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items X-01 to X-05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Bengio (ed.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>risks of advanced AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sevilla and Rold\u00e1n<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research note<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>compute growth<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Strubell et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>proceedings<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>training energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Patterson et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>training emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Li et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>water footprint<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bommasani et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>foundation models<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cazzaniga et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>staff note<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>labour exposure<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>electricity demand<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Index 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Stanford HAI<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>adoption, cost, incidents<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre energy report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>LBNL<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>US electricity share<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Governing AI for Humanity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN advisory body<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>global governance<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, labour and access<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Generative AI and jobs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ILO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>exposure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Future of Jobs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WEF<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>job churn<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Facts and Figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ITU<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>people offline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technology and Innovation Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>development<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Cybersecurity Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WEF<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>cyber<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Supply chains, incidents and electricity<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Semiconductor supply chain<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>SIA \u00b7 BCG<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>chip concentration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>mineral refining<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>MOFCOM \u00b7 BIS<\/td><td>2022\u201323<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>trade controls<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Incident Database<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Responsible AI Collaborative<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>incidents<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Incidents Monitor<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>OECD<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>incidents<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Electricity Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Ember<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>power mix<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Data-centre electricity demand is rising fast<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Compute and adoption are scaling quickly<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Chip supply is highly concentrated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How large inference demand will become as agents spread<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Whether AI will mainly augment or substitute work<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much water AI uses at global scale<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">PREPRINTS<\/p><p>Three sources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup> are preprints and are labelled as not peer-reviewed. They contextualise findings; none binds a finding on its own.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Artificial Intelligence, OECD\/LEGAL\/0449, as amended in 2024. OECD, Paris, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. UNESCO, Paris, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Pact for the Future, resolution 79\/1, annex I: Global Digital Compact. United Nations, New York, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), NIST AI 100-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile, NIST AI 600-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO\/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology, Artificial intelligence, Management system. ISO, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>G7 Hiroshima AI Process (ed.), Hiroshima Process International Code of Conduct for Organizations Developing Advanced AI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>. G7, Hiroshima, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>E. Strubell, A. Ganesh and A. McCallum, \u201cEnergy and policy considerations for deep learning in NLP,\u201d in Proceedings of the 57th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pp. 3645\u20133650, 2019.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>D. Patterson, J. Gonzalez, Q. Le et al., \u201cCarbon emissions and large neural network training,\u201d arXiv:2104.10350 (preprint, not peer-reviewed), 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>P. Li, J. Yang, M. A. Islam and S. Ren, \u201cMaking AI less \u2018thirsty\u2019: uncovering and addressing the secret water footprint of AI models,\u201d arXiv:2304.03271 (preprint), 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>R. Bommasani, D. A. Hudson, E. Adeli et al., \u201cOn the opportunities and risks of foundation models,\u201d arXiv:2108.07258 (preprint), 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UN High-level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Governing AI for Humanity: Final Report. United Nations, New York, September 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 AI agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where will data-centre demand exceed grid and water capacity first, and what does that do to local prices and reliability?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT01-GRD-01 \u00b7 compute\u2013grid\u2013water; first output: cluster capacity register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How exposed is AI capability to a disruption in advanced chips, tools or minerals?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT01-CHP-02 \u00b7 supply concentration; first output: single-point-of-failure map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much energy does inference use as AI agents spread, compared with training?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT01-INF-03 \u00b7 inference energy; first output: measured estimates by use.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which failure modes of agentic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> appear in real incidents, and how are they caught?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT01-SAF-04 \u00b7 agentic incidents; first output: incident taxonomy and evidence grades.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Is AI augmenting or substituting work, by occupation and region, on measured rather than modelled evidence?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT01-LAB-05 \u00b7 measured labour effects; first output: evidence review.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How is the EU AI Act being applied, and what evidence of compliance capacity exists?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: implementation note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How does AI change the cyber threat landscape for <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 critical-infrastructure\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Physical and digital assets, systems and networks whose disruption would seriously affect health, safety, security, economic welfare or the functioning of government. Criticality depends on what relies on them.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">critical infrastructure<\/a>?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">With GS-13 cyber; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">X-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which AI capabilities in risk management have been tested in real operations?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Technology capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 AI portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT01-GRD-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compute\u2013grid\u2013water capacity<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>X-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT01-CHP-02<\/span><\/td><td>Chip and mineral supply concentration<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>X-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT01-INF-03<\/span><\/td><td>Inference energy measurement<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>X-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT01-SAF-04<\/span><\/td><td>Agentic incident evidence<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>X-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT01-LAB-05<\/span><\/td><td>Measured labour effects<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>X-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-XT01-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Chip\u2013grid compound Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>X-02<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The AI edition reads national readiness chapters, the sector reports on energy, water and cyber, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; Canada, Global and Water are issued.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National readiness chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">AI and compute in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANADA ISSUED \u00b7 25 further national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector couplings<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GS-02 energy \u00b7 GS-01 water \u00b7 GS-13 cyber<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">GS-01 ISSUED \u00b7 energy and cyber baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Technology system model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">compute, energy, chips, labour, governance<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-13 strategic technology \u00b7 SR-04 minerals \u00b7 SR-10 DPI<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">XT-01 report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-XT01-2027-01 \u00b7 chip\u2013grid compound disruption<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead, drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ENE-001 \u00b7 electricity<\/td><td>GS-02 Energy edition<\/td><td>grid coupling<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-002 \u00b7 US share<\/td><td>INI-XT01-GRD-01<\/td><td>cluster capacity<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CMP-003 \u00b7 compute<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIN-005 \u00b7 chips and minerals<\/td><td>INI-XT01-CHP-02 \u00b7 SR-04<\/td><td>supply concentration<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LAB-007 \u00b7 labour<\/td><td>INI-XT01-LAB-05<\/td><td>measured effects<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SAF-009 \u00b7 incidents<\/td><td>INI-XT01-SAF-04 \u00b7 GS-13<\/td><td>agentic incidents<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DEV-011 \u00b7 access<\/td><td>GS-06 Development edition<\/td><td>access coupling<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-XT01-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AI Incident Database<\/td><td>Responsible AI Collaborative<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>SAF-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor<\/td><td>OECD<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>SAF-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity market reports<\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>ENE-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Compute and model trends<\/td><td>Epoch AI<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>CMP-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export-control notices<\/td><td>national authorities<\/td><td>per notice<\/td><td>MIN-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Grid interconnection queues<\/td><td>system operators<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>RSK-XT01-ENE-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Model and system cards<\/td><td>developers<\/td><td>per release<\/td><td>capability register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-XT01-001<\/td><td>Clustered data-centre load lengthening grid queues<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>initiative X-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-XT01-002<\/td><td>Tightening export controls on chips, tools and minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>MIN \u00b7 TRD<\/td><td>initiative X-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-XT01-003<\/td><td>Incidents involving autonomous agents<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>AIC \u00b7 DAT \u00b7 FIN<\/td><td>initiative X-04<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c7-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Compute and data centres<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">AI capability rests on compute, and compute rests on data centres: buildings full of accelerators that need power, cooling, land and connectivity.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4\u20135\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">a year<\/span><p>frontier training compute growth<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224830<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% a year<\/span><p>accelerated-server demand growth<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;280\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cheaper<\/span><p>fixed-level use, 2022\u20132024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Training compute<\/td><td>four to five times a year since about 2010<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inference<\/td><td>demand rising as use spreads; poorly measured<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cost<\/td><td>cost of fixed-level use collapsing<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Concentration<\/td><td>compute concentrated in few providers and regions<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 ENE electricity<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 WAT cooling<\/li><li>DAT \u2194 AIC cloud dependence<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>inference energy by use<\/li><li>utilisation of deployed compute<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Compute spot prices, new cluster announcements and efficiency gains in accelerators.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes infrastructure at aggregate scale. It assesses no company or facility.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy and water<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">AI demand lands on particular grids and basins. The global share of electricity is small; local shares at clusters are large and rising.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">415<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>data-centre electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of US electricity, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248945<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>projected for 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Electricity<\/td><td>about 1.5% of world use<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Local grids<\/td><td>connection queues at clusters<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>cooling demand at water-stressed sites<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions<\/td><td>depend on the power mix of each grid<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 ENE load growth<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 WAT cooling demand<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 AIC power availability<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>grid capacity at clusters<\/li><li>water use outside the United States<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Grid connection queues, local electricity prices near clusters and water permits for new sites.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical demand. It assesses no company, utility or grid operator.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Chips and minerals<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The AI supply chain is among the most concentrated in the world, from mineral refining to chip fabrication.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">92<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan, 2019<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2023<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">controls<\/span><p>gallium and germanium export controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2022<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">controls<\/span><p>advanced-chip export rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fabrication<\/td><td>leading-edge capacity in one region<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals<\/td><td>refining concentrated in a few countries<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade controls<\/td><td>chips, tools and minerals since 2022<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>New capacity<\/td><td>fabs under construction elsewhere<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>MIN \u2192 AIC chips<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 AIC controls<\/li><li>WAT and ENE \u2192 fabs<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>current capacity shares by node<\/li><li>time to recover from a disruption<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Export-control notices, chip lead times and new fab completions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes supply-chain structure. It assesses no company or government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Economy and workforce<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">AI is spreading through work faster than evidence on its effects. Exposure is broad; whether it brings augmentation or substitution is the open question.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">78<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>organisations using AI, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25\u201340<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of jobs exposed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">170 \u00b7 92<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>jobs created \u00b7 displaced by 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Adoption<\/td><td>78% of organisations in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Exposure<\/td><td>a quarter to two-fifths of jobs<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Job churn<\/td><td>170 million created and 92 million displaced by 2030<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Measured effects<\/td><td>limited causal evidence so far<\/td><td>,<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 labour tasks and skills<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 FIN productivity and investment<\/li><li>labour \u2192 HLT income and wellbeing<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>measured employment effects by occupation<\/li><li>access to retraining<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Labour-market statistics by exposed occupation and the uptake of retraining programmes.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes labour exposure. It makes no statement on any employer or labour policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Safety, security and failure modes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Harms are rising with use. Agentic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> that act on their own add new failure modes, while incident evidence remains thin.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">233<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">incidents<\/span><p>reported in 2024, a record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">+56<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>on 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">96<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">experts<\/span><p>in the International AI Safety Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Incidents<\/td><td>record 233 reported in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk taxonomy<\/td><td>malicious use, malfunction, systemic risks<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cyber<\/td><td>AI changes attack and defence<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agentic failures<\/td><td>little systematic evidence<\/td><td>,<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 DAT cyber exposure<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 FIN automated decisions<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 information-integrity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The accuracy, consistency and reliability of the information ecosystem on which public decisions depend.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">information integrity<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>agentic incident taxonomy<\/li><li>evaluation results for deployed agents<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Incident reports involving autonomous agents and evaluation results published with new model releases.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes risks at aggregate level. It certifies no system and assesses no developer.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>P. Li, J. Yang, M. A. Islam and S. Ren, \u201cMaking AI less \u2018thirsty\u2019: uncovering and addressing the secret water footprint of AI models,\u201d arXiv:2304.03271 (preprint), 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>12 tables<\/span><span>6 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Growth in data-centre electricity to 2030<\/td><td>945 \u00f7 415<\/td><td>\u2248 2.3\u00d7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Increase in organisational AI use, 2023\u20132024<\/td><td>78 \u2212 55<\/td><td>23 points<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Net job change expected by 2030<\/td><td>170 \u2212 92<\/td><td>\u2248 78 million<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Compute growth over five years at 4\u20135\u00d7 a year<\/td><td>4\u2075 to 5\u2075<\/td><td>\u2248 1,000\u20133,000\u00d7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Technology System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-XT01-AI \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent AI as infrastructure coupled to energy, water, minerals, labour and institutions<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for site, company or model-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the entangled reading of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global risk<\/a>.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 AI annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Technology System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Data-centre electricity use<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Apr 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next IEA update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data-centre share<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>Dec 2024<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next LBNL report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Organisations using AI<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Apr 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>AI Index 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Training compute trend<\/td><td>2010\u20132024<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Leading-edge chip capacity share<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>new studies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reported AI incidents<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Apr 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>AI Index 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jobs exposed to AI<\/td><td>2024\u20132025<\/td><td>2024\u20132025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>new estimates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People offline<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Nov 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>inference against training<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>use outside the United States<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Compute and cost<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>efficiency of deployed <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chips and minerals<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>current capacity shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adoption<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>small firms and public sector<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Labour<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>measured, not modelled, effects<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Safety<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>agentic incidents<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Governance<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>implementation evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the International Energy Agency from data-centre, grid and industry data with scenario modelling to 2030. Role: binds ENE-001 and the 2030 projection, labelled as a projection.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-XT01-001<\/h3><p>Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by Stanford HAI from surveys, public datasets and incident databases. Annual. Role: binds adoption, cost, investment and incident findings.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-XT01-002<\/h3><p>Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GLB-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GLB-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>company disclosure incomplete<\/td><td>survey samples skew to large firms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about a year after the data<\/td><td>about four months after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>projections revised with new data<\/td><td>series revised annually<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>methods and scenarios published<\/td><td>methods published by chapter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>compared with national laboratory estimates<\/td><td>widely cited; no formal audit<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>LBNL data-centre report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>, US electricity and water<\/li><li>Epoch AI compute trends<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>, method for frontier compute<\/li><li>International AI Safety Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>, risk taxonomy<\/li><li>ILO exposure index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup>, occupational exposure method<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The Global Risks Alliance turns the capital key: its steward checks that no finding reads as advice, a rating or an underwriting decision. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on five sites<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at Global Risks Alliance<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AI<\/td><td>artificial intelligence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI RMF<\/td><td>NIST Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIS<\/td><td>US Bureau of Industry and Security<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CETS<\/td><td>Council of Europe Treaty Series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GPU<\/td><td>graphics processing unit, used as an AI accelerator<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HAI<\/td><td>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA<\/td><td>International Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ILO<\/td><td>International Labour Organization<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ITU<\/td><td>International Telecommunication Union<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LBNL<\/td><td>Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TWh<\/td><td>terawatt-hour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNESCO<\/td><td>United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-XT01-CHG-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Cluster notes<\/td><td>cards for the major data-centre clusters<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition, data-centre electricity use<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>annual electricity consumed by data centres, including cooling<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>TWh a year<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>IEA bottom-up estimate from server, storage, network and cooling loads<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>IEA, Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>company disclosure incomplete; range published<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>does not separate AI from other workloads exactly<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-ca-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Data-centre electricity use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248415<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of world electricity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22481.5<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Projected data-centre use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248945<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data-centre share of electricity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4.4<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Frontier training compute growth<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4\u20135\u00d7<\/span><\/td><td>a year<\/td><td>2010\u20132024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fall in cost of fixed-level use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;280\u00d7<\/span><\/td><td>fold<\/td><td>2022\u20132024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Organisations using AI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">78<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Corporate AI investment<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248252<\/span><\/td><td>US$ billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reported AI incidents<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">233<\/span><\/td><td>incidents<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">92<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jobs exposed to AI, IMF<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224840<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jobs exposed to generative AI, ILO<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224825<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jobs created by 2030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">170<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025\u20132030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jobs displaced by 2030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">92<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025\u20132030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People offline<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.6<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AData-centre%20electricity%20use%2C%E2%89%88415%2CTWh%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AShare%20of%20world%20electricity%2C%E2%89%881.5%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AProjected%20data-centre%20use%2C%E2%89%88945%2CTWh%2C2030%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B1%5D%0AUS%20data-centre%20share%20of%20electricity%2C4.4%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0AFrontier%20training%20compute%20growth%2C4%E2%80%935%C3%97%2Ca%20year%2C2010%E2%80%932024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B14%5D%0AFall%20in%20cost%20of%20fixed-level%20use%2C%3E280%C3%97%2Cfold%2C2022%E2%80%932024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AOrganisations%20using%20AI%2C78%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0ACorporate%20AI%20investment%2C%E2%89%88252%2CUS%24%20billion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AReported%20AI%20incidents%2C233%2Cincidents%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0ALeading-edge%20logic%20capacity%20in%20Taiwan%2C92%2C%25%2C2019%2CREPORTED%2C%5B17%5D%0A%22Jobs%20exposed%20to%20AI%2C%20IMF%22%2C%E2%89%8840%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B16%5D%0A%22Jobs%20exposed%20to%20generative%20AI%2C%20ILO%22%2C%E2%89%8825%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B32%5D%0AJobs%20created%20by%202030%2C170%2Cmillion%2C2025%E2%80%932030%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0AJobs%20displaced%20by%202030%2C92%2Cmillion%2C2025%E2%80%932030%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0APeople%20offline%2C2.6%2Cbillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B34%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Exponential%20Technology%20Report%202026%3A%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Data-centre%20electricity%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88415%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Share%20of%20world%20electricity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%881.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Projected%20data-centre%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88945%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20data-centre%20share%20of%20electricity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%224.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Frontier%20training%20compute%20growth%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%224%E2%80%935%C3%97%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222010%E2%80%932024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Fall%20in%20cost%20of%20fixed-level%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E280%C3%97%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22fold%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%E2%80%932024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Organisations%20using%20AI%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2278%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Corporate%20AI%20investment%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88252%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22US%24%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Reported%20AI%20incidents%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22233%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22incidents%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Leading-edge%20logic%20capacity%20in%20Taiwan%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2292%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222019%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B17%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Jobs%20exposed%20to%20AI%2C%20IMF%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8840%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B16%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Jobs%20exposed%20to%20generative%20AI%2C%20ILO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8825%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B32%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Jobs%20created%20by%202030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22170%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%E2%80%932030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B20%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Jobs%20displaced%20by%202030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2292%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%E2%80%932030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B20%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20offline%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.6%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B34%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Projections are labelled SCENARIO. Exposure is not job loss, and the IMF and ILO estimates use different definitions. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024\u20132030<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Index 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>university<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>adoption<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>International AI Safety Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>expert panel<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>safety<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre energy report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national laboratory<\/td><td>United States<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Compute trends<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research institute<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2010\u20132024<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>compute<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Semiconductor supply chain<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>industry \u00b7 consultancy<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>chips<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Labour exposure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF \u00b7 ILO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024\u20132025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>labour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Facts and Figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Incident databases<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>civil society \u00b7 OECD<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>safety<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, AI across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of AI infrastructure and exposure in table form, and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, AI across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>largest data-centre load; grid queues<\/td><td>power, water, labour<\/td><td>LBNL<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>; IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>early adoption; clean-power potential<\/td><td>energy, skills<\/td><td>assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>binding AI law; grid constraints<\/td><td>governance, power<\/td><td>AI Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>limited public data<\/td><td>access to chips<\/td><td>export controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>new data-centre investment; water stress<\/td><td>water, power<\/td><td>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>connectivity gaps<\/td><td>access, skills<\/td><td>ITU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>large workforce exposure<\/td><td>labour, skills<\/td><td>ILO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>chip manufacturing concentration<\/td><td>supply chain<\/td><td>SIA\u2013BCG<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>fast-growing data-centre hubs<\/td><td>power, water<\/td><td>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>small-island access gaps<\/td><td>connectivity<\/td><td>ITU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Cluster card, leading-edge chip manufacturing<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">supply chain<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">single region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">chips<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">minerals<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>compute, electronics, trade, finance<\/dd><dt>Defining fact<\/dt><dd>about 92% of leading-edge logic capacity in one region in 2019<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 AIC chips; ENE and WAT \u2192 fabs; TRD \u2192 AIC export controls<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>new fabs announced in several regions; stockpiles limited<\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>current capacity shares; time to recover from disruption<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>X-02<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Leading-edge chips depend on a handful of fabs, tool makers and mineral refiners. Each is efficient; together they form a chain with few alternatives.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SUPPLY<\/h3><p>One region, one chain<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chip fabrication uses large volumes of ultra-pure water and reliable power, coupling chip supply to droughts and grid events.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">PHYSICAL INPUTS<\/h3><p>Fabs need water and power<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Export controls on chips, tools and minerals since 2022 add policy risk to physical risk.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">TRADE<\/h3><p>Controls tighten<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Cluster cards are generated for the major data-centre and chip clusters in 2027, with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. Chip manufacturing is shown first because it holds the leading compound pathway.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the AI edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the AI edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the AI edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-01-cb-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>40 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), NIST AI 100-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile, NIST AI 600-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO\/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology, Artificial intelligence, Management system. ISO, Geneva, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Artificial Intelligence, OECD\/LEGAL\/0449, as amended in 2024. OECD, Paris, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. UNESCO, Paris, 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Pact for the Future, resolution 79\/1, annex I: Global Digital Compact. United Nations, New York, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1\u20132 November 2023. London, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, January 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>E. Strubell, A. Ganesh and A. McCallum, \u201cEnergy and policy considerations for deep learning in NLP,\u201d in Proceedings of the 57th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pp. 3645\u20133650, 2019. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>D. Patterson, J. Gonzalez, Q. Le et al., \u201cCarbon emissions and large neural network training,\u201d arXiv:2104.10350 (preprint, not peer-reviewed), 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>P. Li, J. Yang, M. A. Islam and S. Ren, \u201cMaking AI less \u2018thirsty\u2019: uncovering and addressing the secret water footprint of AI models,\u201d arXiv:2304.03271 (preprint), 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>R. Bommasani, D. A. Hudson, E. Adeli et al., \u201cOn the opportunities and risks of foundation models,\u201d arXiv:2108.07258 (preprint), 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>G7 Hiroshima AI Process (ed.), Hiroshima Process International Code of Conduct for Organizations Developing Advanced AI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>. G7, Hiroshima, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UN High-level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Governing AI for Humanity: Final Report. United Nations, New York, September 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. ISSB, London, 2023.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Exponential Technology Series XT-01<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 AI edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">XT-01<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-XTC-XT-01-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-01&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GRA&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gra&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-01&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-01-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>XT-01 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> AI and Agentic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Risks Alliance<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Exponential Technology<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GRA<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Global Risks Alliance<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See every way to contribute<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gra\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-skalliance-com-nexus-reports-editions-xt-01-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-skalliance-com-nexus-reports-editions-xt-01-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-skalliance-com-nexus-reports-editions-xt-01-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Reports<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/indicators-indices\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk indicators and composite indices<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? 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