Japan 2026, chapter 8: Systems in depth

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Japan has ample rainfall but steep, short rivers, so water arrives fast and leaves fast. Floods, landslides and seismic damage to pipes are the binding risks.

>70,000homes

flooded by Typhoon Hagibis, 2019²⁰

2024Noto

long water outages after the earthquake¹¹

47prefectures

each with its own supply systems

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Supply	ample rainfall; rivers steep and seasonal	²¹	Reported
Floods	levee breaches and landslides in heavy rain	²⁰	Reported
Seismic	pipe failures cut supply after earthquakes	¹¹	Reported
Ageing pipes	renewal backlog in many utilities	²¹	Inferred

Couplings into other systems

WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
SEI → WAT pipe failures
CLI → WAT heavy rain
WAT → ENE hydro and cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

pipe seismic resilience by utility
restoration times after earthquakes

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Emissions are at a record low and clean power passed 30% of electricity in FY2023, but Japan still imports almost all of its oil, gas and coal.

>30%

clean share of electricity, FY2023²

≈15%

energy self-sufficiency⁵

40–50%

renewables target for FY2040⁴

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Power mix	renewables and nuclear above 30%	²	Reported
Imports	almost all fossil fuel imported by sea	⁵	Reported
Nuclear	restarts continuing under safety review	⁴	Reported
Peak demand	heat waves raise summer peaks	¹²	Inferred

Couplings into other systems

TRD → ENE fuel imports
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → ENE peak demand
SEI → ENE coastal plant shutdowns

Evidence to bind in 2027

fuel stock depth under disruption
grid resilience to great earthquakes

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Japan grows 38% of its food on a calorie basis, and much of its feed and fertiliser is imported, so food security is a trade question.

38%

calorie self-sufficiency, FY2023¹⁶

45%

target for FY2030¹⁷

≈62%

calories imported (derived)

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Self-sufficiency	38% on a calorie basis	¹⁶	Reported
Rice	largely self-sufficient; 2024–25 price rise	¹⁷	Reported
Feed and fertiliser	largely imported	¹⁷	Reported
Farm workforce	ageing and shrinking	¹⁷	Reported

Couplings into other systems

TRD → FOO import dependence
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → FOO heat and rice quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

import concentration by commodity
heat effects on rice quality

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Japan has long life expectancy and universal coverage, but heat and ageing now load health and care every summer, and disasters hit older people hardest.

29.3%

aged 65 or over¹⁵

97,600people

heatstroke transports, 2024¹²

1,651deaths

from heatstroke, 2023¹³

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Ageing	29.3% aged 65 or over	¹⁵	Reported
Heat	record transports in 2024	¹²	Reported
Disasters	disaster-related deaths among older people	¹¹	Reported
Care workforce	shortages documented	,	Expert input

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
SEI → HLT disaster-related deaths
ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

care continuity in disasters
heat deaths outside hospitals

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Japan has high endemism across its islands, and protection on land is above 20%, but the sea is further behind and invasive species and land-use change continue.

20.5%

of land protected, 2023¹⁹

13.3%

of sea protected, 2023¹⁹

30%

target by 2030³⁴

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Protection	land about 20.5%, sea about 13.3%	¹⁹	Reported
Strategy	national strategy 2023–2030 adopted	¹⁸	Reported
Pressures	invasive species, land-use change, climate	¹⁸	Reported
Condition	not bound outside protected areas	,	Expert input

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
BIO → FOO fisheries and pollination
CLI → BIO warming seas

Evidence to bind in 2027

condition outside protected areas
marine ecosystem change

8.6Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Japan. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 8.6The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 8.7Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Japan	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025.back
11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
21Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), Water Resources in Japan 2024. MLIT, Tokyo, 2024.back
2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
4Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ed.), Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. Cabinet decision, Tokyo, February 2025.back
12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
17Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas. MAFF, Tokyo, 2025.back
15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
13Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics: deaths from heatstroke, 2023. MHLW, Tokyo, 2024.back
19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Systems in depth

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

8.6Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

Notes

Cite this chapter

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