Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 SEI
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Finance
    9. 2.9 Trade
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Great earthquake in an ageing region
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives a worst case of about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage, with tsunami the leading cause of death.

Figure 2.1Nankai Trough worst-case estimate (2025 revision)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Deaths (thousands)≈298
Damage (¥ trillion)≈292

Source: Central Disaster Management Council working group9.

Implication

Such an event would strike the Pacific industrial belt, ports, refineries and power plants at once, and the national economy and global supply chains through them. Early evacuation and seismic retrofitting are estimated to cut deaths sharply, which makes preparedness a high-value capability89.

What would move it

Progress on tsunami evacuation towers and retrofits, the next long-term evaluation, and business-continuity coverage along the Pacific coast would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023: 4.0% below FY2022 and 23.3% below FY2013 (27.1% net of removals).1

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    2024 was the warmest year on record in Japan; the long-term warming trend is about 1.4 °C per century.67

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    Renewables and nuclear together supplied more than 30% of electricity in FY2023; Japan still imports almost all of its fossil fuel.25

2.4SEI

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

    The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives up to about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage in the worst case.9

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

    The January 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake cut water, roads and care across an ageing region for months.11

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    Food self-sufficiency was 38% on a calorie basis in FY2023, against a target of 45% by FY2030.1617

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

    About 97,600 people were taken to hospital by ambulance for heatstroke between May and September 2024.12

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    29.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, and births fell to about 686,000.1415

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

    Protected areas covered about 20.5% of land and 13.3% of the sea in 2023, against 30% by 2030.1819

2.8Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    About one in three households holds earthquake insurance; public infrastructure losses are largely uninsured.22

2.9Trade

  1. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011

    Dependence on imported fuel, food and feed makes global price and shipping shocks a direct national risk.516

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large earthquake in an ageing region that cuts water, power, roads and care together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
  2. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025.back
  3. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025.back
  4. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
  5. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
  6. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
  7. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025.back
  8. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  9. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
  10. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas. MAFF, Tokyo, 2025.back
  11. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
  12. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025.back
  13. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
  14. 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023.back
  15. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  16. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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