- France 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, dry summer with low river flows
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Share of freshwater consumed by agriculture
≈58%drinking water about 26% and power-plant cooling about 12% of consumption.
ReportedrecentSDES12
ENE · Energy
Low-carbon share of electricity
≈95%nuclear about two-thirds; record net exports in 2024.
Reported2024RTE7
FOO · Food
Share of EU agricultural output
≈18%the largest of any member state.
Reported2024Eurostat23
HLT · Health
Heat-attributable deaths, summer
3,700+deathsabout three quarters among people aged 75 and over.
Reported2024SpF4
BIO · Biodiversity
Change in farmland bird populations
≈−30%since 1989, the clearest long-run signal of pressure on farmland ecosystems.
Reported1989–2023ONB18
SYS · Cross-system
Natural-event insurance claims
≈10€ bnin 2022, the highest since 1999, driven by hail, drought and storms.
Reported2022France Assureurs13
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Low summer flows shared by irrigation, cooling and drinking water; 17.1 million residents exposed to river flooding. | WAT → ENE · WAT → FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| ENE | About 95% low-carbon electricity; nuclear output exposed to heat and low flows. | ENE ← WAT · ENE → HLT | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | The EU’s largest agricultural producer; harvests cut in hot, dry years. | FOO ← WAT, CLI | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | More than 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024; older people most exposed. | HLT ← CLI, ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| BIO | Farmland birds down about 30% since 1989; wildfire reaching new regions. | BIO → FOO pollination | Reported EQL 4 |
| CLI | 2022 the warmest year on record; planning for +4 °C by 2100. | forcing on all five systems | Reported EQL 5 |
| INF | Rail, roads and networks exposed to heat, floods and clay movement. | INF ← CLI, WAT | Inferred EQL 3 |
| FIN | CatNat regime since 1982; claims rising with drought subsidence. | FIN ← CLI · FIN → households | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | Data-centre growth near major cities adds grid and cooling demand. | DAT ← ENE, WAT | Inferred EQL 2 |
| AIC | Low-carbon power attracts compute; national figures not consolidated. | AIC → ENE | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Import reliance for transition minerals. | MIN → ENE transition | Inferred EQL 2 |
| TRD | Electricity exports and food exports link France to its neighbours. | TRD ↔ ENE, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | coupled heat–drought–energy summers825 | compound hot, dry summers | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | low flows shared by three uses12 | drought; floods | GOOD |
| GS-02 | Energy | about 95% low-carbon power7 | cooling limits in heat | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | largest EU agricultural producer23 | drought and heat on harvests | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | 3,700+ heat deaths, 20244 | heat among older people | GOOD |
| GS-05 | Finance | CatNat regime1415 | subsidence and flood claims | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | overseas service gaps | cyclones and water supply | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | warmest year 20228 | heat, drought, Mediterranean storms | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | Cyclone Chido, Mayotte, 202426 | overseas and metropolitan extremes | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | networks exposed to heat and clay movement | rail and road disruption | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban heat islands | heat in dense cities | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | farmland birds −30%18 | habitat loss; wildfire | GOOD |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong national and European monitoring | data integration | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | data-centre growth | outages and attacks | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | climate, energy and adaptation laws91617 | implementation pace3 | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | deep research base | translation into operations | THIN |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
- 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
- 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
- 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
- 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
- 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
- 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
- 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
- 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
- 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982.back
- 26Gouvernement (ed.), « Cyclone Chido à Mayotte » : communiqués et bilan, December 2024 – January 2025. Paris.back
- 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
- 16Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2021-1104 du 22 août 2021 portant lutte contre le dérèglement climatique et renforcement de la résilience face à ses effets. Journal officiel, Paris, 2021.back
- 17Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 2019-1147 du 8 novembre 2019 relative à l’énergie et au climat. Journal officiel, Paris, 2019.back
- 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back