Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Health
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Water
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low river flows
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as stress-corrosion repairs coincided with heat and low river flows that limited cooling; output recovered to about 362 TWh in 2024.

Figure 2.1Nuclear electricity output (TWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
2021≈361
2022279
2024≈362

Sources: RTE Bilan électrique 2022 and 2024257.

Implication

Nuclear provides about two-thirds of French electricity, so a hot, dry summer is an energy event as well as a water and health event. When reactors cut output, France imports at peak European prices and its neighbours lose an exporter725.

What would move it

River temperatures and flows on the Rhône, Loire and Garonne each summer, the scheduling of reactor maintenance, and summer import volumes would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Territorial emissions were 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 1.8% below 2023 and 32% below 1990.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Meeting the 2030 target of 270 Mt requires cuts of about 15 Mt a year; the 2024 cut was about 7 Mt.340

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France.8

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling coincided.25

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    Electricity was about 95% low-carbon in 2024; power-sector emissions fell 26% as nuclear and hydro output recovered.17

2.4Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

    Heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024; about three quarters were among people aged 75 and over.4

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

    France produces about 18% of the EU’s agricultural output, the largest share of any member state.23

2.6Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    Agriculture accounts for about 58% of freshwater consumed; the Plan Eau targets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030.1112

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence, a leading cost of the CatNat regime.1421

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Natural-event insurance claims reached about €10 billion in 2022, the highest since 1999.13

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Farmland bird populations have declined by about 30% since 1989.18

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought, wildfire and clay subsidence load health, food and insurance. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
  2. 7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
  3. 1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
  4. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
  5. 40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025.back
  6. 8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
  7. 4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
  8. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
  9. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
  10. 12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  11. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back
  12. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
  13. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
  14. 18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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