The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Insurance Nexus are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Published scenarios · Workspace WS-62
| Policy administration extract | v5.8 | Open | REPORTED |
| Claims data | v4.2 | To check | OBSERVED |
| Cat model output | v5.9 | Open | MODELLED |
| Market statistics | v4.7 | Open | OFFICIAL |
share used vs alert level
Insurance Nexus · PipelinePipeline, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Insurance Nexus sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the insurance and catastrophe field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Insurance Core Principles and ComFrame. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
Which places drive loss in a severe year, and how far it reaches into reinsurance. Illustrative design values.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
| Scenario | Typical design | Where it is required or described |
|---|---|---|
| Realistic disaster scenarios | Named-peril events placed on a defined footprint against the portfolio | Lloyd's market practice and many supervisors' catastrophe returns |
| ORSA climate scenarios | At least two long-term climate scenarios for material climate risk | EIOPA guidance; the 2025 Solvency II review brings climate scenarios into the ORSA framework |
| Climate stress tests | Physical and transition shocks to assets and liabilities together | Supervisory exercises, using NGFS scenario variables |
| Reverse stress tests | Start from capital breach and identify the events that cause it | ORSA practice under ICP 16 |
Insurance scenarios that move only liabilities understate stress. A severe event can raise claims and depress the value of the insurer's investments in the same quarter, especially when its assets include real estate, mortgages or bonds from the affected region. Sector scenarios on this platform state both sides and their assumed dependence. Illustrative values only; methods at GCRI scenario and stress testing.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.