The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Financial Regulation Nexus are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Financial regulation · Published scenarios · Run R-1345
same inputs, versioned
| R-8297 | Financial economics… | v6.9 | 0.56 | Running |
| R-9978 | Policy, institutional… | v6.1 | 0.51 | Passed |
| R-8482 | Data engineering,… | v6.3 | 0.67 | Failed test |
| R-7954 | Game theory and… | v4.3 | 0.88 | Passed |
Financial Regulation Nexus · Build workspaceBuild workspace, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Financial Regulation Nexus sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the financial stability field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision and Basel III. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
How physical and transition risk could reach a loan book under different scenarios. Illustrative design values.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
| Countercyclical capital buffer | Raises bank capital in credit booms and releases it in stress |
| Borrower-based measures | Loan-to-value and debt-service limits on mortgage lending |
| Sectoral systemic risk buffers | Capital against concentrated exposures, for example to real estate |
| System-wide stress exercises | Joint behaviour of banks and nonbanks under a common scenario |
Whether climate-related concentration should be addressed through macroprudential buffers remains under discussion among authorities; GRA presents it as an open question, not a settled tool. Scenario families at Climate and Nature Financial Risk; climate risk governance at GRF climate risk governance.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.