The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Capital Markets Nexus are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Bond market · Session 2
vs largest two members' default, illustrative
| Settlement fails | 130 | ▲ 23 | Normal |
| Margin calls intraday | 7 | ▲ 1 | Elevated |
| Surveillance alerts | 107 | ▼ 3 | Triage |
Capital Markets Nexus · Market liquidity and clearing monitorMarket liquidity and clearing monitor, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Capital Markets Nexus sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the capital markets and investment field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
How a failure at one financial centre can spread through settlement links. Design links, not real dependencies.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
| Shock | Market channel | Amplifier |
|---|---|---|
| Sudden transition repricing | Equity and credit spreads in exposed sectors | Fund redemptions and index flows |
| Sovereign stress after a disaster | Government bond yields and repo haircuts | Margin calls on leveraged positions |
| Clearing house member default | Variation margin and default fund use | Procyclical margin increases |
| Geopolitical closure of a trade route | Commodity prices and related equities | Leveraged commodity trading positions |
Many market stresses become liquidity stress through margin: sharp price moves raise initial and variation margin, and leveraged nonbanks must find cash. The FSB's July 2025 recommendations on nonbank leverage focus on exactly this channel. Settlement network context at Payments and Market Infrastructure.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
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