The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Asset Management Nexus are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Asset management · Published scenarios · Run R-1371
same inputs, versioned
| R-4635 | Financial economics… | v5.4 | 0.42 | Running |
| R-4437 | Financial and risk… | v5.8 | 0.84 | Passed |
| R-2908 | Scenario design and… | v8.1 | 0.60 | Failed test |
| R-6057 | Econometrics | v6.4 | 0.87 | Failed test |
Asset Management Nexus · Build workspaceBuild workspace, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Asset Management Nexus sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the capital markets and investment field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as IFRS S1 and IFRS S2. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
How physical and transition risk could reach a loan book under different scenarios. Illustrative design values.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
| Component | Typical source | Caution |
|---|---|---|
| Transition pathway | NGFS Phase V scenario variables: carbon price, energy mix, sector output | Long-horizon pathways are narratives, not forecasts |
| Physical hazard | Hazard layers at future periods under emissions scenarios | Downscaling and model spread |
| Repricing assumption | How and when markets would reflect the pathway | The timing of repricing is the largest unknown |
| Portfolio mapping | Sector and asset attribution | Coverage gaps |
The NGFS short-term scenarios published in May 2025 include a disorderly transition in which expectations change suddenly. For portfolios, sudden repricing of exposed sectors matters more than the gradual long-run path, because it hits liquidity and redemptions at the same time. Liquidity effects continue at liquidity and redemption.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.